As the Omicron variant gains momentum in Europe and the United States, scientists are rewriting their expectations for the COVID-19 pandemic next year.
Just weeks ago, disease experts were predicting that countries would begin to emerge from the pandemic in 2022 after enduring a series of surges driven by the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants. First among them would be populations with a significant amount of exposure to the coronavirus, through a combination of infections and vaccination.
In those places, COVID was expected to ease into an endemic disease, hopefully with less-severe periodic or seasonal outbreaks. Vaccines, available for much of 2021 only in wealthy nations, could reach the majority of the global population by the end of the year ahead.
But the rapid spread of the highly-mutated Omicron variant, identified in late November, and its apparent ability to reinfect people at a higher rate than its predecessors, is undermining that hope.
Already, countries are reverting to measures used earlier in the pandemic: restricting travel, reimposing mask requirements, advising against large gatherings for the winter holidays. While it is not quite back to square one, much more of the world will need to be vaccinated or exposed to COVID to get past the worst of the pandemic.
Even after COVID becomes a more endemic disease, new variants will spawn outbreaks and seasonal surges for years to come.
The hope is that the virus diminishes to the point where it is no longer disruptive. But living with COVID-19 does not mean the virus is no longer a threat.
PANDEMIC PHASE ENDING IN 2022?
Some scientists are not entirely ready to abandon hope that some parts of the world will emerge from the pandemic next year. More than 270 million people have been infected with COVID, according to the World Health Organization, while an estimated 57% of the global population has received at least one vaccine dose, representing potential protection that did not exist two years ago.
So far, most of the studies looking at the effectiveness of vaccines against Omicron have focused on neutralizing antibodies, which latch on to the virus and prevent it from entering and infecting cells. Blood test results from fully vaccinated people show Omicron has learned to escape neutralization; a booster dose might restore that protection.
Immune system T cells, which destroy infected cells, also appear still to be able to recognize the variant. Many experts believe this second line of defense will prevent hospitalizations and deaths.
In the meantime, living with COVID in 2022 will likely mean assessing local risks and protecting oneself through vaccination, masking, and social distancing.